New Polling Institute Survey Shows Clinton Now Leading Trump in Presidential Race

June 22, 2016

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A new June survey on presidential candidates conducted by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute (http://polls.saintleo.edu) found Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican opponent Donald Trump by 44.9 percent to 37 percent among likely voters in a presumed two-candidate race with another 18.1 percent undecided.

The poll specifically asked respondents what they would do if the election were held the same day they took the online poll.

The survey was conducted with 1,001 adults—including 930 likely voters—-and was conducted June 10 through June 16. That was right after the California state primary that secured Clinton’s position as presumptive Democratic nominee. The mass shooting in Orlando, FL, was June 12.

During the same time period, the Saint Leo University Polling Institute also polled another 500 adults in Florida, including 459 likely voters, to gauge sentiments in the influential state. Florida likely voters also favored Clinton over Trump, by 50.1 percent to 35.3 percent for the businessman.

Political scientist Frank Orlando, director of the Saint Leo University Polling Institute, said the results point to success for Clinton, “unless something drastic happens.” 

It’s not that survey respondents necessarily like Clinton, responses to other questions show. But more people dislike Trump. The survey base found that 62.6 percent of likely voters nationally attached unfavorable ratings to Trump, compared to the 54.7 percent who felt unfavorably about Clinton. The Florida voters followed the same pattern: 66 percent of likely voters felt unfavorably about Trump, compared to 53.4 percent who are unfavorable about Clinton.

“For sure, they are both not liked,” said Orlando. “Trump is liked even less. Likely voters are holding their noses for both.”

A separate part of the poll asked respondents in detail about their feelings on Trump.  Respondents were presented with statements that either sum up a common criticism of Trump, a compliment about Trump, or a significant policy point from the Trump campaign. Those surveyed were asked whether they strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each statement.

Three out of four likely voters nationally think that Trump is arrogant and uncivil, and more than half even consider him to be a racist because of remarks he has made. A positive statement that he has the temperament to be president failed to attract wide agreement, about 35 percent nationally. Voters in the South and Northeast were more likely to agree that he has the proper temperament.